Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Remember Growth Funds?

They're back.

After seven years of dominance by value stocks, it looks like growth stocks are finally rebounding. The following chart shows the value and growth halves of the Russell 1000 since May 16, 2007:
The Russell 1000 Value index is down 10% in a little more than 6 months, and was 13% off its all-time highs at one point - just 7% away from an official bear market. Meanwhile, the Russell 1000 Growth index has actually gained 2.5% in the same time period, and it hasn't seen any drop greater than 7%.

I think this growth-value split is the beginning of a multi-year trend, so I'm weighting my long investments towards growth funds and ETFs.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Market-timing in action

My market-timing method has actually worked better than I anticipated it would. Here is a chart of the S&P 500 showing when I bought ultra-ETFs and when I sold them:

My new buy-in method is clearly illustrated here. I made four equally-spaced purchases in November to improve my chances of hitting the bottom, and I got pretty close on the 21st.

Even though the market has gone nowhere in the last six months, I've done quite well by timing my leveraged ETF purchases and sales.