Saturday, October 11, 2008

Election prediction: comfortable win for Obama

This is a follow-up to a previous post on the Presidential election polls, and will probably be my last word on the election. John McCain's poll numbers have fallen through the rising bottom trend that represented his last chance to keep the election close, and his next lower "support level" is around 41%. Barack Obama's poll averages meanwhile have reached the 50% threshold, and his lower support level is around 45%.

Assuming that the final election results fall in the middle of the long-term channels for both candidates, my prediction is a 3% margin of victory in the popular vote for Obama on November 4. There's a good chance then that, for the first time since 1996, we'll know who wins the election before midnight on Election Day. Imagine that!

4 comments:

Tim said...

I have no preference in the election but I'll take the other side and say that McCain wins by a slim margin of electoral votes. Can't say how many but polling is imperfect (unlike share price) and I think that McCain's "Negative" ads have an effect on the voters. Many people don't understand the current Wall St mess so it comes down to who do you trust?

Anonymous said...

And the sad part is it doesn't really matter which one of them wins. Along with the egomaniacs in congress, either one would continue to run the economy into the ground

adventurerneil said...

Hey Jody,

I'm long on Obama, as well. I think he'll get around 50% of national vote, and McCain will get around 48%.

I was wondering - do you think DIA is just as good as SPY for indexing? I might start slowly dollar-cost averaging into an index, now that the market's low. I was going to go for SPY, but it looks like DIA has a heftier dividend, which may make a difference to me long-term. This would be with my Roth IRA, and I'm in my mid-20s, so my time horizons are quite long indeed.

Any thoughts?

Jody said...

I think DIA is a fine alternative to SPY, but there's no guarantee that it will maintain its dividend advantage. Other alternatives are XLG and OEF, which are cap-weighted indexes of the largest 50 and 100 companies in the U.S., respectively. If you're really after dividends, then there are several dividend-focussed ETFs that you might consider: DVY, SDY, VIG, VYM, etc.