Monday, March 30, 2009

Rolling over

Today's fall was the second time this month that the S&P 500 index broke through a rising bottoms trend line.

There will probably be more exhilarating one-day gains in the near future, but the bigger trend seems to be a rally that is running out of steam. It looked to me like the rally trend had ended on March 20th, and despite a huge gain on the next day, the S&P 500 hasn't made much progress since then.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

>>> By the way, one of my end-of-bear-market signals would trip if the S&P 500 closed in the vicinity of 850, which is less than 4% higher than today's close of 823. I won't say anything more about that unless and until it happens.

Does today's rally meet your end-of-the-bear-market signal?

Thanks
Vin

Jody Wilson said...

No.

Anonymous said...

That's what we love about your blog, Jody.

You don't beat around the bush.

Interesting times.

Catherine W.

John from CO said...

Jody;
What changes, if any, have there been in the sentiment indicators you model? Is optimism higher, moving "sideways" or is there growing pessimism? Any insight is appreciated.
John from Colorado

Anonymous said...

The sentiment indicators I look at are so bullish it's hard to imagine they are right. They have been overly bullish now for +20%. Could this bear have flushed all the dumb money out and sentiment is actually correct?

Jody Wilson said...

I also have sentiment near multi-year optimistic highs. My basic model still shows this as being a large bear market rally, and not the end of the bear market.