Friday, July 30, 2010

Nowhere fast

The S&P 500 index has been in a holding pattern for more than two months now.

Sentiment is neutral, so I can't make a short-term forecast. The dividend yield of the S&P is still at 2%, and global financial Armageddon looms, so the long term forecast remains very bearish.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010


China - buyer of U.S. treasuries and manufacturer of cheap goods - is in the midst of a housing bubble that has begun to collapse. Whatever schadenfreude one might get from watching China stumble, an economic downturn there will put further strain on our own shaky economy.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Look at me

Hat tip: Theo Spark

Sunday, July 04, 2010

Downward trend; no politics please

Despite the bump in mid-June, the S&P 500 index has been in a downward trend for the past several weeks.

Short-term sentiment had a pessimistic spike in late May, but it has become more neutral since then, which means anything could happen at this point. I realize that's not a very helpful forecast.

I've watched the same Independence Day parade in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the past 30 years or so, and something unusual happened this year. All of the political campaigns were bunched together in the last half of the parade, and as they started marching by with their signs the spectators grew silent, then restless, and then they started to leave before the parade was even over. I felt bad for whomever was bringing up the rear, because they probably had few if any spectators to wave to. For some reason the parade watchers just weren't in the mood for politics this year.