Saturday, January 29, 2011

Fate of the Union Address.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Great. Another stock market bubble.

The S&P 500 index is only 10 points away from the 1300 level, and has erased the losses of late 2008.


Unfortunately there's little data to support the idea that stocks are worth what they're trading for today. The dividend yield of the S&P is only 1.85% right now; typically the yield has varied between 3% and 6%, so by historical standards the S&P is worth between 400 and 800 today.

On the technical side, optimism is at a multi-year high, so I expect at least a correction soon before this speculative rally continues much higher.

Friday, January 21, 2011

One month of winter down, two to go

I suspect that this not-yet-fully-grown snowdrift at the end of my driveway will survive well into spring.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

30 years ago today

Ronald Reagan's prophetic first Inaugural Address:



Unfortunately the Democrats maintained the majority in the House of Representatives throughout his presidency ... so much for balancing the budget.