Monday, October 31, 2011

The correction isn't over yet

Just one month ago the S&P 500 index stopped a few points short of a 20% drop, thereby avoiding official bear market territory. Since then it's rallied dramatically, but now there are a couple of resistance trend lines to overcome.

A closing price above about 1330 would officially end this 19% correction.

Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Tease, tease, tease

A closing price below 1090 on the S&P 500 index would officially announce the birth of a bear market, but we're not there yet, despite the temporary dips below that key level. The sudden rally in the last ~30 minutes of trading today was highly suspicious - almost as if "someone" was working to prevent the official onset.

Saturday, October 01, 2011

I'm really bored now

After finally falling below 1250 in early August, the S&P 500 index has been rattling around between 1220 and 1120 ever since, seemingly going nowhere.

I'd like for the market to break out of this channel one way or another and start an invest-able trend. The mid-September bear market signal would suggest that the market will decline out of this pattern, but the overwhelming pessimism of investors suggests that most of the emotional selling has already happened. Thus I have nothing useful to say about which way the market will go from here.