Wednesday, August 29, 2012


The S&P 500 index crawled above 1400 on August 7. More than three weeks later it's sitting at 1410, and has yet to close above 1420 or below 1400. The April 2nd peak of 1419 (not April 19) looks increasingly like a solid resistance level each time the S&P fails to breach it.

Monday, August 13, 2012

This rally has no legs

None of my stock market indicators have anything good to say about the current 2-month rally. Optimism is returning (bearish), seasonality is poor (neutral), and other market indicators say we're in the vicinity of a market top. The April 2nd S&P peak of 1419 is a potential resistance level, while the October 9, 2007 peak of 1565 is a more formidable one, since it's paired with the 2000 market peak of S&P 1527.

In other words, I'm watching for the next bear market signal.

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

I told ya so.

Here's more proof that short-term market manipulation is being performed by high-frequency trading computers. Today was just one of those rare times when the system hiccuped. It's usually performed more subtly and to the financial benefit of the market makers.
Flood of Errant Trades Is a Black Eye for Wall Street
An automated stock-trading program accidentally flooded the market with millions of trades Wednesday morning, spreading turmoil across Wall Street and drawing renewed attention to the fragility and instability of the nation’s stock markets ...

“The machines have taken over, right?” said Patrick Healy, the chief executive of the Issuer Advisory Group, a capital-markets consulting firm. “When events like this happen they just reaffirm that these aren’t investors, these are traders.”