Monday, June 03, 2013

IT'S ALIVE!!!

I've finally done it!  After years of planning, reams of research and plenty of trial-and-error, my first market bots are operational.  You can view the daily updates on past performance and current stock market positions here.  Both versions (bot13_10.A1 and A2) are currently long on the S&P 500 index, and the all-important proprietary "internals" are on the bullish side of neutral at 6.0 out of 10.  (In the back-test they've been long on stocks since late 2011.)  Over the next few months I'll be adding lots of information to the nowcast/forecast page as well as tweaking the bots themselves to improve the returns and reduce the frequency of buying and selling that they require.

My motivation for making an automated method for choosing when to buy and sell the stock market is to take my own biases and emotions out of the equation.  As much as I've learned about how technical analysis can predict future market performance, I'm still a fallible human being who can be swayed by fear, greed, mob psychology, general moodiness, and the 24-hour news cycle.  My plan is to obey the bots, much as a pilot relies on his instruments when flying on a cloudy night.

4 comments:

Cathy said...

Congratulations on your stellar achievement!

Keith Wilson said...

Finally

A well-researched computerized analysis of past years of the stock market.
And now, using a myriad of factors, there is a brilliant system in place to predict future market trends.

Thank you!

poopingninja said...

Huh?
"as well as tweaking the bots themselves to improve the returns and reduce the frequency of buying and selling that they require."

Confusing because the Hodar Report MarketBots webpage indicates the MOST ACTIVE bot 1310.A2 to have 1.8 average trades/per Year.

Did this trade frequency for this bot increase to like 10 trades these past two years or something??

Good work on hitting a personal goal, automation is always fun, I need a redux on my automation project which I made...after creating it, I made a CAPs account, ignored it, and let the project go defunct. Caps player = spreadsheetv1

What's your prediction on your final tweaked version of bots on trades per year (for the most recent years - ie 2011 to 2014)?

Jody Wilson said...

p-ninja:
The 1.8 trades per year figure is the average since 1950. Both bots have been long on the market since late 2011 with no trades, but then there have also been short periods with significantly higher trading rates.