Monday, September 28, 2015

Bots declare BEAR MARKET

My old automated market-timing bots have finally switched to a bear market stance.  This is hardly a surprise since internals have been negative for weeks while the long-term trend has been turning south.

With this objective reading of the market I'm going to start buying shares of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE, formerly known as the Active Bear ETF); the same ETF that gave me my 15 seconds of fame in the Wall Street Journal.

Given the worsening news from around the world - both economic and otherwise - I have almost no qualms about shorting the U.S. stock market at this point.  The only thing that could rain on a bear's parade would be an announcement by the Federal Reserve that it's starting the 4th round of counterfeiting money-printing Quantitative Easing (QE4), and I agree with people like Peter Schiff that the Fed will almost certainly start QE4 at some point in order to maintain the illusion of a strong economy.  If I'm still in a bearish bet with HDGE when the Fed announces QE4, I will seriously consider moving back to cash.

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Market Bots on the threshold of shorting the market

My old Market Bots just moved the "internal price forces number" down to 1.8 out of 10.  That's the lowest reading in ten years - lower even than it ever reached in the 2007-2009 bear market.  The long-term trend and investment stance are still positive and bullish, respectively, but it's close to switching.  If the internal number drops below 1.0 then the bots will turn bearish on the S&P 500 Index regardless of the price trend.

Reminder: I'm mostly in cash (Money Market) with a dash of real estate and longer-term bonds.  I anticipate my next investment moves will be, in no particular order: (1) going bearish on the dollar with UDN, (2) going bullish on gold with GLD, and (3) buying foreign stocks and bonds with up to a dozen ETFs.