Friday, October 09, 2015

Dollar testing support again

The exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar against other currencies has been bouncing up and down between two converging trend lines for most of 2015.

The dollar has bounced up off of the lower support line four times already (red arrows) in May, June, August, and September.  (It actually fell below the support for one day in August before returning to the range.)  Eventually the trend lines will intersect and by then the dollar will probably start a new upward or downward trend.  It's now reached the lower support line for a 5th time, which raises the possibility that the dollar will break out to the downside here.

If the dollar breaks down, it could be the event I've been waiting for.  At that point I'll move the bulk of my investments overseas with foreign stock and bond ETFs.  Presumably gold and silver could start rising as well, so it would also be a good time to buy the Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

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