Friday, December 18, 2015

Temporarily ignoring the bots

Given the deteriorating economic fundamentals, bearish market internals, and recent interest rate rise after an unprecedented seven years of 0% interest, I don't think the usual positive seasonality that's making the bots bullish applies today.  I've committed the remainder of my retirement funds to the bear market ETF (HDGE).  Here's the summary of my current holdings:
  • Schiff country stock ETFs: 30%
  • Schiff country bond ETFs: 30%
  • Bear market ETF (HDGE): 30%
  • Gold miners (GDX): 10%
One of the long term strengths of this portfolio is that the U.S. stock market is highly overvalued relative to the Schiff countries, so even if the dollar doesn't collapse, the bearish-U.S./bullish-foreign combination will eventually pay off.

Edited on January 20th to correct typo - I swapped the stances of the U.S. and Schiff countries.

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