Tuesday, April 26, 2016

How 'bout them bots!

The S&P 500 market bots have apparently come through once again.  On October 26 last year they switched to a bullish stance with 100% confidence based on an unusual seasonal factor, then last night - exactly 6 months later - they returned to their normal operating mode.  Although they remain in a bullish stance, the "internal price forces" are now neutral with a value of 5.3.  The S&P 500 index was at 2065 when the bots turned bullish in October, and this morning the index opened at 2091, so at the moment the six-month bullish call has eked out a 1% gain.

I've made good gains over the past six months, but it wasn't by following the bots' advice.  Regular readers know that I've been ignoring the bots this time, and instead have been bearishly invested against U.S. stocks with HDGE.  However I've had an equal investment in certain foreign stocks funds, and because these funds have gained more than the S&P over this period (i.e., they've gained more than HDGE has lost) I've made a net gain.

However the REALLY big gainer has been my 10% stake in the Gold Miner's ETF, which has absolutely skyrocketed in the past few months:

Ironically, the ability of my bots to time the U.S. stock market has been of little significance lately, and I suspect the bots will be even less significant over the next year or two as the dollar collapses and gold, silver, and foreign assets make large gains in dollar terms.

1 comment:

Cathy said...

We followed you into the Gold Miner's ETF and will be forever grateful.