Friday, April 01, 2016

Will the bots get a win here?

My automated S&P 500 market-timing bots turned bullish on October 26 last year, when the S&P 500 index was about 2065.  The market then fell 13% from December through February, and has since regained nearly all of the losses.  Yesterday the market closed at 2059, just six points below the bots' buy point.

I chose not to trust the bots at this time, and made a hedged bet of 30% bearish on the U.S. stock market [HDGE] and 30% bullish on some foreign funds that match the "Peter Schiff criteria." (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore)  This combination has made a small gain over the past few months, which is good enough in these crazy central bank manipulated-markets.

The rare seasonal factor that has the bots pegged at 100% bullish is going to end very soon.  It will be interesting to see if this bullish position would have paid off after all, and what the market stance will be when the seasonal factor ends.

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