Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Bots are extra bullish now

My S&P 500 market bots have become even more optimistic about the U.S. stock market's prospects for the next few months.  The Internal Price Forces number has risen to 7.9, which is fully bullish. When the bots are this bullish, only a pre-crash signal a la 1929 or 1987 can make them switch to a bearish stance. 

Despite the bots I remain in my bullish-foreign-stocks/short-U.S.-stocks stance.  The Federal Reserve Bank has been the driver of the U.S. stock market since 2009, and that's not going to change any time soon.  Presently the Fed has taken a pause in the money printing and that leaves the market vulnerable.  When the Fed resumes printing (and it will resume printing) the market will start climbing again and the bots will be proven right, but for the wrong reasons.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

The Schiff Thesis Portfolio

I've set up a portfolio on Google finance that includes my transactions and holdings since I started betting against the dollar on October 14 of last year.  I normalized the starting amount to $100,000.  Here's a screen capture of the results so far (click to enlarge):

Google finance doesn't always give the correct names of the funds, so here's a table of the ETFs I'm using:

ETF TickerDescription
AUSEAustralia + New Zealand Bonds
ALDAsia Local Debt (Bonds)
AUSEAustralia Dividend Stocks
ENZLNew Zealand Stocks
DVYAAsia/Pacific Dividend Stocks
EWMMalaysia Stocks
NORWNorway Stocks
EWLSwitzerland Stocks
HDGEUS Bear Market
SILSilver Mining Stocks
USLOil price ETF (12 month futures)
GDXGold Mining Stocks

I'd rather have a live public portfolio that readers can check at any time - does anyone know of a website that does this?